Past economic cycles show that unemployment starts to tick up ahead of a recession, with wide-scale layoffs coming only later.The New York Times reports that past economic cycles have shown a consistent pattern of unemployment increasing before a recession, with widespread layoffs occurring later on. However, as job growth has slowed and unemployment has risen, some economists have noted that employers are holding onto their existing workers, which could be seen as a sign of confidence. Despite a few high-profile job cuts, overall layoffs are still lower than they were before the pandemic. Additionally, applications for unemployment benefits have been decreasing in recent months after a slight increase in the spring and summer. However, history has shown that relying solely on layoff data may not accurately reflect the state of the labor market. In previous recessions, job cuts did not occur until the economic downturn was well underway. For example, during the Great Recession, the unemployment rate began to rise in early 2008, but significant job cuts did not occur until late 2008 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the onset of a global financial crisis. Similarly, during the milder recession in 2001, the unemployment rate steadily increased, but layoffs remained relatively low apart from a brief spike in the fall. It is important to note that we are currently having difficulty retrieving the article content, so please enable JavaScript in your browser settings. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode, please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for full access to The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. Already a subscriber? Log in. Want full access to The Times? Subscribe. 

Source:Read More