The former president often implies that deportations will bring down housing costs. Reality is more complicated.The New York Times reports that former President Donald J. Trump and Senator JD Vance often suggest that deportations will help lower housing costs. However, the reality is more complex.

While Trump and Vance blame the recent surge in immigration for the housing affordability crisis, most economists do not believe that immigrants are the main cause of rising housing prices. In fact, rents and home costs began to increase in 2020 and 2021, before the influx of newcomers in 2022 and 2023.

Furthermore, studies have shown that immigrants play a small role in the overall housing market. Even the economist whose research was cited by Vance admitted in an interview that immigration has had a minimal impact on housing costs.

In contrast, many experts in the housing industry believe that Trump’s proposed solution of mass deportations could actually worsen the housing crisis. This is because immigrants not only contribute to the demand for housing, but they also make up a significant portion of the workforce that supplies it. In fact, foreign-born workers make up 25% of the construction labor force and are heavily concentrated in trades such as plastering, drywall installation, and roofing.

In booming housing markets, particularly in the South, the recent influx of migrants has helped meet the demand for both skilled and unskilled labor in the residential construction industry. Therefore, deporting these workers could lead to a shortage of labor and further exacerbate the housing crisis.

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