Voters in two heavily Republican House districts in Florida will decide who to send to Congress. See which party is ahead in turnout so far.The New York Times reports that voters in two heavily Republican House districts in Florida will soon decide who to send to Congress. As the special elections in Florida’s First and Sixth Congressional Districts approach, Democrats are hoping for a long-shot victory that could potentially erode the GOP’s narrow majority in the House.
Despite the districts’ strong Republican leanings – with President Trump winning Florida’s First by a 37-point margin and the Sixth by 30 points in the 2020 election – special elections tend to be more favorable for Democrats. This year alone, Democrats have already achieved upsets in multiple state legislative special elections, including a four-point win in a district that Trump had carried by 20 points in Iowa and a two-point win in a district he had won by over 10 points in Pennsylvania.
Adding to Democrats’ optimism, recent polls have shown a tighter race in the Sixth District than expected. To track the partisan split of voters in both special House races, data on early turnout and Election Day turnout is being monitored. However, it is important to note that party affiliation does not necessarily determine how a voter will cast their ballot, and a significant portion of the electorate is not registered with either party.
Early turnout, which includes voters who have returned a mail ballot or voted early in person, and Election Day turnout, which will be reflected on Tuesday as people vote in person, have been divided into two categories. It is worth noting that there can be a significant difference in partisanship between those who vote early and those who vote on Election Day. Generally, early voters, especially those who vote by mail, tend to lean more Democratic than those who vote in person on Election Day.
For context, the tracker also includes turnout and results from the 2020 presidential election in these districts for both early and Election Day voters. In Florida’s First Congressional District, the seat was previously held by Matt Gaetz, who resigned shortly after being re-elected when he was nominated by Trump to be attorney general. However, he eventually withdrew himself from consideration. The current candidates on the ballot are Democrat Gay Valimont and Republican Jimmy Patronis.
In Florida’s Sixth Congressional District, the seat was vacated by Michael Waltz after he was selected by President Trump to be his national security adviser. Recently, Waltz made headlines when he included an Atlantic editor in a Signal group chat where top U.S. officials discussed sensitive military plans. The candidates running for his old seat are Democrat Joshua Weil and Republican Randy Fine.
Data analysis for this report was contributed by Jonah Smith.
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